Monday, December 11, 2006

How responsible is man?

According to the Telegraph of London, the International Panel on Climate Change will be issuing a new, updated report and will be making some changes. They say that global temperatures will rise by 1.5 C and could rise by 4.5 C over the next 100 years.

Now the Telegraph did make claims that this could cause severe weather such as the tornado that hit parts of London last week. In fact the consensus is there is no consensus.

The new report, which the Telegraph says they have seen, says that while global warming is taking place they will be stating that humans are responsible for only about a quarter of it. The bulk of global warming is natural. The report also supposedly reduces the predicted rise in sea levels. The paper says "Scientists insist that the lower estimate for sea level and the human impact on global warming are simply a refinement due to better data on how climate works rather than a reduction in the risk posed by global warming."

That is actually correct. The risks of any several weather change are not dependent on the cause of the change. If warming were 100% anthropogenic the consequences of warming would be exactly the same as if it were 100% natural. But what the new estimates do mean is that the impact man has on global climate change is smaller than previous estimates. All the Kyoto Treaties and similar measures invented can't reduce the bulk of global warming as it is not human induced.

The report is now going to politicians so don't be surprised if changes are made to the language .