Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Polls confirm voters don't like GOP but really dislike Obama

For a couple of years now I have been repeating a mantra of mine: voters are voting against incumbents not supporting the other party, regardless of which party is in power.

People hated Bush and voted Obama because they were sick of Republicans. Obama and the Democrats stupidly assumed that was support for them and a mandate to screw up health care with government mandates and controls. I have been arguing that voters would flock to the Republicans because they aren't Democrats, not because they support the theocratic conservatism of the Religious Right.

So, it is nice to see Bloomberg news confirming what I've been saying. They say voters are moving over the Republicans but that polls suggest "voters aren't embracing Republicans as much as they are rejecting Democrats." They write: "Republicas are in an anomalous position—poised to make political gains while the party and its policies are unpopular.

What is particularly worrisome for the Democrats is that the Bloomberg poll shows that voters who are most likely to vote are overwhelmingly rejecting the Democrats. Among those who say they will definitely vote 51% lean Republican and 37% lean Democratic. About half of voters, 49%, said they would benefit if the Republicans win, 29% say they will be harmed and 27% say it will make no difference. Apparently Nancy Pelosi is highly disliked; 52% have a negative view of her, while only a third are positive. I'm with them on that one, I can't stand the woman either.

Given the option of voting Democrat, Republican or Other, 18% of voters prefer other without having an other named. Now, the Libertarian Party won't be able to capture that vote. It ruined its reputation as a libertarian party with clowns like Barr and Root. And certainly the runner-ups in that race would have been pathetically poor candidates. Given the same choice over again I would prefer Steve Kubby but, as nice a guy as he may be, he wouldn't be a great candidate. The LP simply has NO one worth supporting.

My guess is that the most successful third party option would be if moderate Republicans broke off from the GOP. There are a couple of races where this has happened and the race is between the now Independent, but formerly Republican candidate, and the GOP, with the Democrats trailing the pack.

If an independent party could be orgaized around individuals taking the best from each of the two main parties, it might succeed. Certainly someone as decent as Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico, would be a good option. While he isn't as pure as some LP people, he is more decent than many and more electable.

I loved Johnson on the Jon Stewart show. Stewart looked at Johnson and said, "But aren't you a libertarian?" Johnson just smiled and said: "You think!" It was a perfect response that caught Stewart a bit by surprise. He seemed speechless for a second and then asked again and Johnson nodded his head. I like Johnson, I saw him tell Tea Party types that they needed to end the war on drugs, which took guts since that would only lose him support. At a dinner party of about 40 he was the main speaker and he was approachable and open to ideas.

"Moderates" can win. The polls show strong support for lower taxes, less government, and a balanced budget. A plurality or majority, depending on the poll, don't like Obamacare, and wait until people start losing the insurance they were told they could keep. Voters are not favorable to US interventionism overseas. The endless wars have tired them and they want out. And few favor the moralistic bullshit of the Religious Right, which the GOP is continuing to promote.

If a moderate party adopted lower taxes, a balanced budget, reduced government, and actually supported bringing the troops home (unlike lying Obama) they would go a long way. If they repealed DADT most voters would have no problem with that, polls show most people favor that move. They don't even have to embrace a pro civil liberties position, if they just refrained by the Theopublican policies of bashing people in the name of God.

Voters have been beaten down by theocratic Republicans like Bush. They have been smacked around by elitists who look down on them, like Obama. They really do seem to want a government that will just back off and leave them alone for awhile. A moderate party, made of Republicans who want to tell the Religious Right to fuck off, and Democrats who are sick and tired of being lap dogs to unions and progressive, would have a chance. It's too late this year, of course. But we can dream.